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倫敦20國集團首腦會議：全球地緣政治動盪前最後的機會

――致20國集團領導人的公開信

LEAP/E2020團隊 2009年3月24日

女士們、先生們，

您將在幾天後在倫敦召開首腦會議，您是否知道只有不到一個學期的時間來預防世界陷入危機，這個危機的解決至少需要十年的時間，還伴隨著一系列的悲劇和騷亂？？因此，這封來自LEAP/E2020團隊的公開信，將簡要說明事件的起因和如何限制其進一步的損害，我們早在三年前就預見到“全球系統性危機” 的到來。

如果在大半年年前您確實懷疑大規模的危機是否會發生，LEAP/E2020團隊在其第二期發表了”全球歐洲預測公告?（GEAB 2）”，預測了世界即將進入史無前例的危機的觸發階段。

從那以後，月複一月，LEAP/E2020團隊繼續無情地對這場令世界苦苦掙扎的危機的進展進行高度準確的預測。出於這個原因，我們認為我們團隊有資格給您寫這封公開信，希望這將幫助您在幾天之內做出抉擇。

這場危機越來越危險。最近，在第32版的公報中，我們對作為20國集團的領導人的您直接相關的問題進行了預警。如果在4月2日的倫敦集會時您還不能就至關重要的問題採取一系列大膽和創新的決定，並且從2009年夏天開始實施，那麼到今年年底危機將導致全面的地緣政治動盪，這將影響著國際體系和大型結構的政治實體，如美國，俄羅斯，中國和歐盟。您所掌握的全世界60億居民的命運的任何機會將稍縱即逝。

您的選擇：一個3－5年的危機，抑或是至少10年的危機？

到現在為止您僅僅是在關注這場危機相關的症狀和繼發效應，但不幸的是，面對這樣一個歷史性規模的危機，您毫無防備。您認為向全球的引擎注入更多的燃料就足夠了，卻不知道這樣一個事實，即引擎已經毀壞，根本就沒有修復的希望。

事實上，全球必須建立一個新的引擎，而且當國際體系月復一月地惡化，您所剩的時間已經不多了。

對於如此重大的危機，我們必須觸及問題的核心。唯一的選擇是進行大量根本性的改革，從而大大縮短危機的週期並減少結局的悲劇色彩，或者相反，拒絕做出任何試圖挽救現行制度的改革，從而延長危機的期限並增加消極的後果。在4月2日的倫敦，您可以通過一個有組織的方式在3至5年內平穩地解決危機，或將世界拖入一個可怕的十年。

我們將給您具有戰略意義的三個建議，如果這些建議不能從2009年夏天開始實施，從今年年底開始的全球地緣政治動盪將不可避免。

LEAP的三個戰略性建議

1. 解決危機的關鍵在於建立一個新的國際儲備貨幣！

第一項建議是一個非常簡單的想法：改革二戰後繼承下來的國際貨幣體系，並建立新的國際儲備貨幣。

美國的美元和經濟已不能支持目前的全球經濟、金融和貨幣秩序。只要這一戰略問題不直接解決，危機就將惡化。實際上這是衍生金融品危機、銀行危機、能源價格危機的核心……這些危機的後果是大規模失業和生活水準的崩潰。因此，這個至關重要的問題應該是20國集團首腦會議的主要議題，並且這是開始解決危機的第一步。其實解決這一問題的辦法是眾所周知的，即建立一個基於世界上最大的經濟體相對應的一籃子貨幣形成的國際儲備貨幣（這個貨幣可稱為“global”），這些貨幣籃子包括美元、歐元、日元、人民幣、卡力吉（Khaleeji，由海灣石油生產國將於2010年1月推出的單一貨幣）、盧布、裡亞爾…, 該儲備貨幣由“世界貨幣研究所”管理，研究所董事會的構成將反映經濟體的比重。

您必須要求國際貨幣基金組織和有關中央銀行於2009年6月準備這個計畫，其實施日期應定在2010年1月1日。

這是唯一的方法，可以讓您重新控制目前的平倉活動，並且讓您實現基於一個共同的貨幣的全球共同管理，該貨幣處於經濟和金融的活動中心。如果這個針對目前正在崩潰的系統的替代方案不能在今年夏天開始，事實將證明“各幹各的”方案將大行其道，當今的國際體系將無法生存在今年夏天。

如果20國集團的某些國家認為在盡可能長的時間內保持現有特權更好的話，他們應該面對事實，如果他們今天仍然可以極大地影響這個新的全球貨幣體系的未來形態，一旦全球地緣政治動盪階段開始，他們將失去這樣的影響力。

2. 儘快建立銀行管制計畫！

第二項建議已在即將舉行的首腦會議的初步辯論中多次提到，因此應該很容易通過。

在今年年底前要在全球範圍內創造一個銀行管制計畫，以禁止所有系統的“黑洞”。您的專家已經提了大量的建議。現在您要下定決心：儘快國有化金融機構！

3. 讓國際貨幣基金組織來評估美國、英國和瑞士的金融系統！

第三項建議涉及到一個不容忽視的政治上敏感的問題。

2009年7月之前，國際貨幣基金組織要提交給20國集團關於金融危機的核心國美國、英國和瑞士金融系統的獨立評估。

如果您不能清晰地理解全球金融體系的三大支柱的內部所遭受危機的損害，這些可持續的建議就不會得到有效執行。

已經沒有時間禮貌地對待那些處於金融危機風暴眼裡的國家了。

寫一個簡單而簡短的聲明！

最後，請允許我們提醒您，您的任務是恢復60億人的信心，以及數以百萬計的公營及私營機構。因此，不要忘了寫一個簡短的聲明－不超過2頁，提出最多 3到4個關鍵的想法，讓老百姓可以閱讀和理解。如果你沒這樣做，除了一小部分專家，沒有人會理解你所說的。那麼您將無法恢復廣大市民的信任，危機則定會變得更糟。

如果這封公開信可以説明您明白歷史將根據本次首腦會議的成敗來判斷您，那麼它是有用的。您的市民將不會再等待一年以上才判斷你。

至少此時此刻，您不能說沒有人警告過您！

LEAP/E2020研究部主任：法蘭克.比昂蓋裡

2009年3月24日

譯者:宋鸿兵

中文出處

http://blog.china-cbn.com/u/songhongbing/139106.html

原文版

Open letter / London G20 Summit: Last chance before global geopolitical dislocation

Open letter to the G20 leaders, published in the Financial Times' worldwide edition on 03/24/2009

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Your next summit takes place in a few days in London; but are you aware that you have less than a semester to prevent the world from plunging into a crisis that will take at least a decade to resolve, accompanied by a whole series of tragedies and ferment? Therefore, this open letter by LEAP/E2020, who saw the arrival of a « global systemic crisis » as early as three years ago, intends to briefly explain why it happened and how to limit further damage.

If indeed you began to suspect the onset of a sizeable crisis less than a year ago, LEAP/E2020, in the second issue of their « Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin » (GEAB N°2), anticipated that the world was about to enter into the « trigger phase » of a crisis of historic proportions. Since then, month after month, LEAP/E2020 has relentlessly continued to produce highly accurate forecasts of the development of this crisis with which the world is now struggling. For this reason, we feel entitled to write you this open letter which we hope will aid you on the choices you will have to make in a few days.

This crisis is getting more and more dangerous. Recently, in the 32nd edition of its Bulletin, LEAP/E2020 raised an alarm of direct concern to you, the leaders of the G20. If, when gathered in London next April 2nd, you are not able to adopt a number of bold and innovative decisions, focused on the essential issues and problems, and to initiate them by summer 2009, then the crisis will entail a « general geopolitical dislocation » by the end of the year, affecting the international system as well as the very structure of large political entities such as the United States, Russia, China or the EU. Any chance for you to control the fate of the 6 billion inhabitants of the world will then be over.

Your choice: a 3- to 5-year crisis or a decade-at-least long crisis?

Until now you have merely been concerned with the symptoms and secondary effects of this crisis because, unfortunately, nothing prepared you to face a crisis of such an historic scale. You thought that adding more oil to the global engine would be enough, unaware of the fact that the engine was broken, with no hope of repair. In fact, a new engine must be built, and time is running out, as the international system deteriorates further each month.

In the case of a major crisis, one must get to the heart of the matter. The only choice is between undertaking a number of radical changes, thus greatly shortening the duration of the crisis and diminishing its tragic outcome or, on the contrary, refusing to make any such changes in an attempt to save what is left of the present system, thus extending the crisis’ duration and increasing all the negative consequences. In London, next April 2nd, you can either pave the way for the crisis to be solved in an organised manner in 3 to 5 years, or drag the world through a terrible decade.

We will content ourselves with giving you three recommendations that we consider strategic ones in the sense that, according to LEAP/E2020, if they have not been initiated by this summer 2009, global geopolitical dislocation will become inevitable from the end of this year onward.

LEAP'S THREE STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS

1. The key to solving the crisis lies in creating a new international reserve currency!

The first recommendation is a very simple idea: reform the international monetary system inherited post-wwii and create a new international reserve currency. The US Dollar and economy are no longer capable of supporting the current global economic, financial and monetary order. As long as this strategic problem is not directly addressed and solved, the crisis will grow. Indeed it is at the heart of the crises of derivative financial products, banks, energy prices... and of their consequences in terms of mass unemployment and collapsing living standards. It is therefore of vital importance that this issue should be the main subject of the G20 summit, and that the first steps towards a solution are initiated. In fact, the solution to this problem is well-known, it is about creating an international reserve
currency (which could be called the « Global ») based on a basket of currencies corresponding to the world’s largest economies, i.e. US dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Khaleeji (common currency of oil-producing Gulf states, to be launched in January 2010), Ruble, Real..., managed by a « World Monetary Institute » whose Board will reflect the respective weight of the economies whose currencies comprise the « Global ». You must ask the imf and concerned central banks to prepare this plan for June 2009, with an implementation date of January 1st, 2010. This is the only way for you to regain some control over currently unwinding events, and this is the only way for you to bring about shared global management, based on a shared currency located at the centre of economic and financial activity. According to LEAP/E2020, if this alternative to the currently collapsing system has not been initiated by this summer 2009, proving that there is another solution than the « every man for himself » approach, today’s international system will not survive this summer.

If some of the G20 states think that it is better to maintain the privileges related to the « status quo » as long as possible, they should meditate the fact that, if today they can still significantly influence the future shape of this new global monetary system, once the phase of global geopolitical dislocation has started they will lose any capacity to do so.

2. Set up bank control schemes as soon as possible!

The second recommendation has already been mentioned many times in the preliminary debates to your upcoming summit. It should therefore be easy to adopt. It is about creating, before the end of this year, a scheme of bank control on a global scale, suppressing all the system’s « black holes ». A number of options have already been suggested by your experts. Make up your mind now: nationalize financial institutions as soon as is necessary! It is the only way to prevent a new episode of massive indebtment by them (the kind of episode which significantly contributed to the current crisis), and to show to the general public that you have some credibility to deal with bankers.

3. Get the IMF to assess the US, UK and Swiss financial systems!

The third recommendation relates to a politically sensitive issue, which cannot be ignored. It is essential that, no later than July 2009, the imf presents to the G20 an independent assessment of the three national financial systems at the heart of the current financial crisis: US, UK and Switzerland. No sustainable recommendation can be efficiently implemented as long as no one has any clear understanding of the damage caused by the crisis inside these three pillars of the global financial system. It is no longer time to be polite with the countries located at the centre of the current financial chaos.

Write a simple and short statement!

Finally, please allow us to remind you that your task is to restore confidence among 6 billion people and among millions of public and private organisations. Therefore do not forget to write a short statement – no more than 2 pages, presenting a maximum of 3 to 4 key ideas that non-experts can read and understand. If you fail to do so, no one will read what you have to say apart from a narrow circle of specialists, therefore you will not revive confidence among the general public and the crisis will be doomed to get worse.

If this open letter helps you to feel that History will judge you according to the success or failure of this Summit, then it has been useful. According to LEAP/E2020, your citizens will not wait any longer than a year before they judge you. This time at least, you will not be able to say no one warned you!

Franck Biancheri
Director of studies of LEAP/E2020, www.leap2020.eu
President of Newropeans, www.newropeans.eu

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